Now some fresh pickings from the
Political Grapevine:
" The Grapevine"
Wednesday, August 05, 2009,
10:25:16 AM | Survivor U
Long-term economic cycles are the
result of collective human behavior,
mass psychology if you will.
read
more
Monday, July 06, 2009, 9:29:09
AM | Survivor U
A bubble is a rapid expansion in
the economy due to a perceived
game-changing shift in the
fundamental way of doing business.
As a result of the shift, stock
prices increase rapidly.
read
more
Monday, July 06, 2009, 9:27:47
AM | Survivor U
Stagflation has the
characteristics of a recession, slow
economic growth and high
unemployment however it is also
accompanied with raising prices and
inflation.
read
more
Monday, July 06, 2009, 9:27:10
AM | Survivor U
A depression is an extreme form
of a recession in its severity as
well as its length.
read
more
Monday, July 06, 2009, 9:25:33
AM | Survivor U
A recession is generally
described as a slowdown of economic
growth over at least two quarters.
read
more
Thursday, March 26, 2009,
1:40:39 PM | Survivor U
Bankruptcy is a legal declaration by
an organization or an individual of
the inability to ability to pay
creditors.
read
more
Thursday, March 26, 2009,
1:38:51 PM | Survivor U
Nationalization refers to a public
entity, usually a federal
government, acquiring private assets
of a company.
read
more
Wednesday, March 18, 2009,
12:46:46 PM | Survivor U
Hyperinflation refers to out of
control or extremely rapid
inflation, where prices increase so
quickly the concept of real
inflation is meaningless.
read
more
Monday, March 16, 2009,
1:27:55 PM | Survivor U
Deflation refers to a general
dropping of prices for goods and
services in an economy (the opposite
of inflation),
due to a decr
read
more
Monday, March 16, 2009,
1:26:56 PM | Survivor U
Inflation refers to the general
rising of prices for goods and
services in the economy, due to an
increase in the amount of money
and/or credit available.
read
more
| Thursday,
February 26, 2009 |
| Face
It: Moral Hazard Is Dead |
| Howard Gold, Executive
Editor, MoneyShow.com |
|
Over the past
weeks, as the Obama administration has
rolled out plans to spend hundreds of
billions of dollars to bail out homeowners,
banks, and the economy, the issue of
"moral hazard" has emerged front
and center.
Moral hazard,
according to Economist.com, means that
"people with insurance may take greater
risks than they would without it because
they know they are protected."
The issue has
applied primarily to banks and Wall Street
firms that made reckless bets with
shareholders' money and are now getting
taxpayer funds to stay afloat.
But recently a
former pit trader vented on
television that the proposed $275-billion
mortgage rescue package would reward
"losers" at the expense of people
who made their payments every month.
The merits of that
claim aside, the whole discussion prompted
me to wonder whether that's even the most
relevant question anymore.
Because the idea
that you pay a price if you screw up has
disappeared in many areas of our society.
There is, simply, no "hazard"
anymore for many people who fail or break
the rules.
Let's start with
the worst: Wall Street. For 20 years, the
Street has been plagued by one scandal after
another.
Remember Drexel
Burnham Lambert's promotion of the junk bond
market in the 1980s? The mastermind behind
that, Michael Milken, did go to prison and
was banned from the securities business for
life. But many others who worked there went
on to bigger things: money management,
private equity, even the derivatives
business at AIG, which has become a
continuing albatross for taxpayers.
Then there was
Salomon Brothers' attempt to manipulate the
Treasury bond market and a subsequent
cover-up that cost the job of chief
executive officer John Gutfreund. Salomon
was saved from extinction only after big
shareholder Warren Buffett agreed to become
chairman.
The 1990s brought
the dot.com mania, under which analysts like
Henry Blodget touted terrible Internet
stocks to retail investors to grease the
wheels of investment banking's fee machine.
Also, major banks helped fraud factories
like Enron and WorldCom raise money and had
to pay out billions of dollars in legal
settlements.
The reforms in the
early part of this decade helped fix those
problems, but Wall Street made even bigger
bets, claimed even greater rewards, and
created an even-bigger catastrophe, which
may take a decade or more to resolve.
Not too many top
corporate executives have been penalized for
failure, either. Most notoriously, Bob
Nardelli took home more than $200 million
after being booted as chief executive
officer of Home Depot
(NYSE: HD), and Hank McKinnell
got almost the same after running Pfizer's
(NYSE: PFE) stock into the
ground. Stanley O'Neal, who
pushed Merrill Lynch into far more risk
taking than it could handle, left with over
$160 million. (And while we're on the
subject of Merrill, how about those cronies of former
CEO John Thain who walked away with tens of
millions of dollars for several months of
great work as the firm lost $27.6 billion
last year?)
There are many,
many more examples. Shareholders have gotten
more vigilant of late, and that's a good
thing, but the damage to moral hazard has
been done.
This goes beyond
business, too.
How about politics?
Remember the Clinton Administration?
Remember Whitewater, Monica Lewinsky,
impeachment and perjury charges, allowing
big donors to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom,
and the notorious Marc Rich pardon?
And the Republicans
are no slouches in this area, either: Jack
Abramoff, Bob Ney, Mark Foley, Sen. Ted
Stevens, and the billions of dollars awarded
in no-bid contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan
all show that no party has a monopoly on
vice or virtue.
And despite many
arrests, convictions, and resignations,
politicians continue to push the envelope.
Their main rule: don't get caught.
As for the sports
world, I have two words for you: Alex
Rodriguez. If you want a few more, how about
Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Roger Clemens, or
Jason Giambi? Their alleged or admitted
links to steroids and other
performance-enhancing drugs has tainted an
entire era of baseball history.
"Everybody has
lost the presumption of innocence,"
Tony Kornheiser said on ESPN last weekend.
"At least give people some reason to
believe cheating doesn't pay."
The National
Football League has toughened its suspension
policy since over 300 arrests of NFL players
this decade. Yet players return after
suspensions or even doing hard time. Adam
"Pacman" Jones got another shot
with the Dallas Cowboys after a one-year
suspension. Even Michael Vick, who gets out
of prison this year following convictions
for running a dog-fighting ring, has gotten
interest from two teams.
Hey, if OJ could
still run, somebody would try to sign him
up, too.
The mantra, of
course, goes back to Oakland Raiders owner
Al Davis: "Just win, baby."
Or make money, as
in the entertainment world. Who can count
the number of stars who go to rehab as often
as they go to the gym and get second, third,
or fourth chances, like Britney Spears or
Robert Downey, Jr.? Or rappers like Lil
Wayne, 50 Cent, and R. Kelly, for whom
courtroom appearances are as routine as
signing autographs?
My point is,
there's been a huge breakdown in ethics in
all areas of American life, and short-term
gain has become the be-all and end-all for
far too many. Yes, there are tens of
millions of us—probably the majority—who
work hard, plan for the future, and teach
our children to live good lives, but it's
not easy amid the corruption that pervades
our society.
So, how do we stop
it?
Well, actually
early this decade we had a wave of corporate
crime ranging from Enron, WorldCom, and Tyco
International to the options backdating
scandal. A little-noticed group, the
President's Corporate Fraud Task Force,
secured more than 1,200 convictions,
including that of 214 CEOs in the five years
from 2002 to 2007. That and the
much-maligned Sarbanes-Oxley Act
helped clean up corporate America-outside of
Wall Street, of course.
I expect that to
change soon when the Federal Bureau of
Investigation completes its criminal
investigation of the mortgage mess, which
reportedly covers senior executives at 26 major firms
involved in issuing and selling subprime
mortgages.
I hope individuals
who submitted fraudulent information to help
them obtain mortgages they couldn't afford
get prosecuted, too.
But if we're really
serious about restoring moral hazard, we'll
have to start at the top.
Howard R. Gold
is executive editor of MoneyShow.com. The
opinions expressed here are his own.
|
Do you know what
your net worth is? If not, now is the time
to find out. Why? Because your net worth
can tell you a lot about your current
financial health, and help you to plan for
your financial future--now, that's frugal
and smart.
How is Net
Worth Calculated?
Net Worth is
calculated by subtracting your liabilities
(debts) from your assets. Depending on
your finances, the resulting figure can be
positive (desirable) or negative (not so
desirable). Which will it be for you?
Follow the steps below to find out.
Difficulty: Average
Time Required: 1
hour
Here's How:
- Print out a copy
of the Net
Worth Worksheet.
-
Use the
left-hand column to list all of your
assets. This includes:
- cash,
money held in bank accounts, money
market accounts or Certificates of
Deposit (CDs)
- personal
property, including homes, cars,
boats and recreational vehicles,
furniture, art, antiques,
collectibles and jewelry
- investments,
including stocks, bonds, mutual
funds, annuities, the cash value of
any life insurance policies and real
estate
- retirement
savings, including employee
pension plans, 401(k) or 403(b)
accounts and IRAs
-
Then, assign a
value to each asset. This should be the
estimated resale value of the asset, not
what you paid for the item.
-
Total the value
of your assets, and write the resulting
figure at the bottom of the left-hand
column.
-
Use the
right-hand column to list all of your
liabilities (debts). This includes:
mortgages, home equity loans, car loans,
credit cards, bank loans, student loans,
personal loans from friends and family,
cash advances, medical bills, taxes
owed, alimony/child support owed and any
other debts that you might have.
-
Total your
liabilities, and write the resulting
figure in the "Total
Liabilities" field, near the bottom
of the right-hand column.
-
Subtract your
total liabilities from your total
assets. The resulting figure is your
current net worth. If the number is
positive, you're on the right track.
Keep squeezing those pennies and
building wealth. If your number is
negative, all is not lost. Check out the
following resources, to get your
finances back on track:
Tips:
- Use antique and
collectible books to assess the value of
your collections. Use Kelley
Blue Book to determine the value of
your vehicles.
- Update your net
worth yearly or whenever there is a
major change to your finances.
"Subject: FW: : Thank you
Australia
Written by an Australian Dentist....and too good to delete....
To Kill an American
You probably missed this in the rush of news, but there was actually a
report that someone in
Pakistan
had published in a newspaper, an offer of a reward
to anyone who killed an American, any American .So an Australian dentist wrote an editorial the
following day to let everyone know what an
American is . So they would know when they found
one. (Good one, mate!!!!)
"An American is English, or French, or Italian,
Irish, German, Spanish, Polish, Russian or Greek.
An American may also be Canadian, Mexican,
African, Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Korean,
Australian, Iranian, Asian, or Arab, or Pakistani
or Afghan .An American may also be a Comanche, Cherokee, Osage,
Blackfoot, Navaho, Apache, Seminole or one of the
many other tribes known as native Americans .An American is Christian, or he could be Jewish, or
Buddhist, or Muslim. In fact, there are more
Muslims in
America
than in
Afghanistan
. The only difference is that in
America
they are free to worship as each of them chooses.
An American is also free to believe in no
religion. For that he will answer only to God, not
to the government, or to armed thugs claiming to
speak for the government and for God.
An American lives in the most prosperous land
in the history of the world.
The root of that prosperity can be found in the
Declaration of Independence , which recognizes the
God given right of each person to the pursuit of
happiness .An American is generous. Americans have helped out
just about every other nation in the world in
their time of need, never asking a thing in return
.When
Afghanistan
was over-run by the Soviet army 20 years ago,
Americans came with arms and supplies to enable
the people to win back their country !As of the morning of September 11, Americans had
given more than any other nation to the poor in
Afghanistan
. Americans welcome the best of everything...the
best products, the best books, the best music, the
best food, the best services. But they also
welcome the least .The national symbol of
America
, The Statue of Liberty , welcomes your tired and
your poor, the wretched refuse of your teeming
shores, the homeless, tempest tossed. These in
fact are the people who built America
.Some of them were working in the
Twin
Towers
the morning of September 11, 2001 earning a better
life for their families. It's been told that the
World
Trade
Center
victims were from at least 30 different countries,
cultures, and first languages, including those
that aided and abetted the terrorists.So you can try to kill an American if you must.
Hitler did. So did General Tojo, and Stalin, and
Mao Tse-Tung, and other blood-thirsty tyrants in
the world. But, in doing so you would just be
killing yourself . Because Americans are not a
particular people from a particular place. They
are the embodiment of the human spirit of freedom.
Everyone who holds to that spirit, everywhere, is
an American.
Global Warming Skeptics Advance, Says
Inhofe
By
Katherine Poythress
CNSNews.com Correspondent
August 03, 2007
(Correction:
Fixes year
Kyoto
protocol was implemented in 13th paragraph.)
(CNSNews.com)
- Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), ranking member on
the Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW),
told approximately 400 conservative students
Thursday morning that despite attempts to silence
global warming critics, the ground of the climate
change debate is starting to shift their way,
giving their views more exposure and effect.
In his speech at the 29th National Conservative
Student Conference in
Washington
,
D.C.
, sponsored by the Young America's Foundation,
Inhofe accused liberals of trying to silence the
dissenting voices.
He then named a host of scientists from around the
world who are critical of global warming,
including MIT's professor of meteorology Richard
Lindzen who calls the fear of man-made global
warming "silly."
Referring to the most recent global warming report
released by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, EPW Communications Director Marc
Morano told Cybercast News
Service, "There are 2,000 scientists
affiliated with the U.N., and only 52 wrote the
last summary for policymakers. Of those 2,000,
they include prominent skeptics [of global
warming] like Richard Lindzen and Pat
Michaels."
Inhofe also referred to a letter 60 prominent
scientists sent to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen
Harper in 2006, in which they claimed the Kyoto
Protocol of the 1990s was a regulatory measure
written out of ignorance and which is now
unnecessary based on modern scientific
discoveries.
After his speech, Inhofe spoke with reporters
about his criticism of the Environmental
Protection Agency's membership in the American
Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE), which
reportedly has engaged in blackmail and threats to
advance its agenda and silence global warming
critics.
Specifically, Inhofe cited an e-mail sent by ACORE
President Martin Eckhart to the prominent global
warming critic Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the
Competitive Enterprise Institute in
Washington
,
D.C.
In the e-mail, Eckhart vowed to Lewis: "It is
my intention to destroy your career as a liar. If
you produce one more editorial against climate
change, I will launch a campaign against your
professional integrity. I will call you a liar and
charlatan to the Harvard community of which you
and I are members. I will call you out as a man
who has been bought by Corporate America."
Inhofe said he has written four letters
challenging the EPA, Department of Energy,
Department of Agriculture, and Department of
Commerce to withdraw their memberships from ACORE.
"With anyone who is threatening like that,
something has to be done," said Inhofe.
"If you don't have the truth, if you don't
have logic, if you don't have science, you call
names and you threaten."
EPA Director Stephen Johnson reportedly is looking
into the matter, but Inhofe said he does not yet
know the extent of Johnson's actions.
Inhofe admitted his stance on global warming is
unpopular, even with some in his own party. And he
himself used to tow the global warming line until
a few years ago, he said, when he began
researching the Kyoto Protocol and its potential
economic effects.
The $300 billion tax needed to implement the
treaty in 1997 would have been the largest tax
increase in two decades, Inhofe said.
In his research, Inhofe discovered there were many
scientists who criticized the entire premise on
which the Kyoto Protocol was based.
"We're going through a warming period,"
Inhofe said, adding that the Earth's atmosphere is
dynamic and has undergone many recorded changes in
the past.
He said he has seen too many scientists disagree
with the claims that man-induced CO2 emissions are
primarily responsible for the phenomenon and that
the results are going to be catastrophic.
Inhofe attributed what he calls the
"myth" of global warming to an ulterior
power-driven motive, described by former European
Union Environment Minister Margo Wallstrom. She
asserted that "
Kyoto
is about the economy, about leveling the playing
field for big business worldwide," said
Inhofe.
Daniel Lashof, science director of the Natural
Resources Defense Council's
Climate
Center
, told Cybercast News Service he suspects that quotation was taken out of
context.
"That should be a goal of climate
policy," Lashof said. "It needs to
harness market forces to drive down pollution that
causes global warming."
Lashof said he has no doubt there are many
scientists who support some of Inhofe's argument
about global warming.
But "there are no credible scientists who
would support the overall conclusion that Sen.
Inhofe is propounding," said Lashof. "He
tends to suggest that [climate change] is not
about the environment. I think that is a
misinterpretation."
Lashof said he suspects Inhofe's harsh criticism
of the apparent global warming problem is driven
by an aversion to adopting the policies that would
be necessary to solve the problem.
'$100 laptop' production begins
|
By Jonathan Fildes
Science and technology reporter, BBC News
|
Five years after the concept was first proposed, the so-called
$100 laptop is poised to go into mass production.
Hardware
suppliers have been given the green light to
ramp-up production of all of the components needed
to build millions of the low-cost machines.
Previously,
the organization behind the scheme said that it
required orders for 3m laptops to make production
viable.
The
first machines should be ready to put into the
hands of children in developing countries in
October 2007.
"There's
still some software to write, but this is a big
step for us," Walter Bender, head of software
development at One Laptop per Child (OLPC), told
the BBC News website.
The
organization has not said which countries have
bought the first machines.
Silencing critics
Getting
the $100 laptop to this stage has been a turbulent
journey for the organization and its founder
Nicholas Negroponte.
Since
the idea was first put forward in 2002, the
low-cost laptop has been both lauded and
ridiculed.
Intel
chairman Craig Barret famously described it as a
"$100 gadget" whilst Microsoft founder
Bill Gates questioned its design, particularly the
lack of hard drive and its "tiny
screen".
Other
critics asked whether there was a need for a
laptop in countries which, they said, had more
pressing needs such as sanitation, water and
health care.
Professor
Negroponte's response has always been the same:
"It's an education project, not a laptop
project."
The
view was shared by Kofi Annan, ex-secretary
General of the UN. In 2005, he described the
laptop as an "expression of global
solidarity" that would "open up new
fronts" for children's education.
And
as time passed, even some of the critics have
changed their stance. Earlier this month, Intel,
which manufactures what was considered a rival
machine, the Classmate PC, joined forces with OLPC.
Functional
design
The
innovative design of the XO machine has also drawn
praise from the technical community.
Using
open source software, OLPC have developed a
stripped-down operating system which fits
comfortably on the machine's 1GB of memory.
"We
made a set of trade-offs which may not be an
office worker's needs but are more than adequate
for what kids need for learning, exploring and
having fun," said Professor Bender.
The
XO is built to cope with the harsh and remote
conditions found in areas where it may be used,
such as the deserts of
Libya
or the mountains of
Peru
.
|
|
Professor Negroponte first proposed the laptop in 2002
|
For
example, it has a rugged, waterproof case and is
as energy efficient as possible.
"The
laptop needs an order of magnitude less power than
a typical laptop," said Professor Bender.
"That means you can power it by solar or
human power."
Governments
that sign up for the scheme can purchase solar,
foot-pump or pull-string powered chargers for the
laptop.
And
because it may be used in villages without access
to a classroom, it has also been designed to work
outside. In particular, the green and white
machines feature a sunlight-readable display.
"For
a lot of these children it's their only book and
we want them to have a first class reading
experience," said Professor Bender.
Name
drop
The
XO will be produced in
Taiwan
by Quanta, the world's largest laptop
manufacturer.
The
final design will bring together more than 800
parts from multiple suppliers such as chip-maker
AMD, which supplies the low-power processor at the
heart of the machine.
"This
is the moment we have all been waiting for,"
Gustavo Arenas of AMD told the BBC News website.
"We
certainly believe very strongly in the mission and
vision of OLPC so finally starting to see it come
to fruition is not only gratifying, it is also
rewarding."
Test
machines, on which the final design is based, are
currently being put through their paces by OLPC.
"We
keep laptops in the oven at 50 degrees and they
keep on running," said Professor Bender.
Field
testing is also being done in countries such as
Nigeria
and
Brazil
.
However,
the names of the governments that have purchased
the first lots of machines have not been released.
The
XO currently costs $176 (£90) although the
eventual aim is to sell the machines to
governments for $100 (£50).
Story
from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/technology/6908946.stm
Published: 2007/07/22 23:09:42 GMT
© BBC MMVII
From the pages of Design
News
| Hydraulic Powertrains
Propel These Hybrid Trucks |
Joseph
Ogando, Senior
Editor -- 7/16/2007
|
|
With gas prices reaching
record highs recently, consumers
have already endured pain at the pumps,
but it’s really just a twinge compared
to the pain operators of heavy-duty
vehicle fleets feel. The trucks that
deliver our packages and haul our
garbage have a couple of strikes against
them from a fuel-economy standpoint.
Weight is the big one. Fully loaded
heavy-duty vehicles cover a weight range
from 14,000 to more than 70,000 lb
And on top of the weight, many of these
vehicles have a fuel-burning duty cycle
that requires continuous starts and
stops. So it should
come as no surprise to anyone that some
of the biggest operators of these truck
fleets have jumped on the hybrid vehicle
bandwagon. Both Federal
Express and UPS
have added several dozen hybrid electric
vehicles to their fleets over the past
two years, both using a hybrid
powertrain supplied by Eaton
Corp. Waste
Management, the nation’s largest
waste hauler, is likewise evaluating a
variety of hybrid vehicle solutions for
its refuse trucks, according to Lynn
Brown, a company spokesperson.
What may be
surprising, though, is the kind of
hybrid systems fleet operators like Fed
Ex, UPS
and Waste
Management are considering for some
of their heaviest vehicles. These
hybrids don’t use the electric motors,
batteries and wires the way the Toyota
Prius does. They instead propel the
vehicle with a combination of hydraulic
pump-motors, high-pressure fluid lines
and accumulators.
The most
radical – and fuel efficient –
versions of these hydraulic hybrids
eliminate the traditional mechanical
drivetrain altogether. In the vehicles,
diesel engines drive a hydraulic
pump-motor, which in turn charges a
high-pressure accumulator. That
accumulator drives a bent-axis
pump-motor on the rear wheels to propel
the vehicle. A low-pressure reservoir
completes the hydraulic circuit,
collecting the fluid before sending it
back to the first pump-motor.
Like electric
hybrids, hydraulic hybrids also provide
regenerative braking capabilities.
During braking events, of which there
are many in a delivery vehicle or refuse
truck, the pump-motor charges the
high-pressure accumulator. The energy
stored in the accumulator can be used to
reduce the load on the diesel engine
when the truck moves forward again. Or
that energy could also allow limited
bursts of engine-off propulsion — for
example, when operating a truck indoors.
To consumers
and even some engineers, hydraulics may
seem like outmoded technology in an
increasingly electronic world. Yet
hydraulic pump-motors and accumulators
can provide a low-cost, reliable way to
apply torque and store energy — which
is exactly what hybrid vehicles require.
And hydraulics offer a significant
power-density advantage over electrical
systems, at least for now. “It looks
like hydraulics will make a lot of
sense, at least for the heavy end of the
heavy-duty truck spectrum,” says John
DeCicco, a Ph.D. mechanical engineer who
is a senior automotive strategies fellow
for Environmental
Defense.
Hydraulic
Propulsion Styles
Hydraulic hybrid systems currently come
in three main variants, all of which can
still be considered developmental.
Researchers at the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency’s Office
of Transportation and Air Quality (OTAQ)
have developed a hybrid in conjunction
with Eaton
Corp., the Southwest
Research Institute (SwRI) and other
partners. Since June 2006, this system
has been under evaluation on a UPS
delivery truck in Detroit. The EPA has
also worked on aspects of hydraulic
hybrid design with Parker
Hannifin under a separate
cooperative research and development
agreement.
Both Eaton
Corp. and Parker
Hannifin also developed their own
proprietary hydraulic hybrid systems.
Eaton’s is a parallel system that uses
the hydraulics for launch assist but
still gets most of its propulsive power
from a mechanical drive train. Over the
last year and a half, Parker Hannifin
has developed a new hydraulic hybrid
design with some duty-cycle input from
Waste Management. Joe Kovach, a Ph.D.
mechanical engineer and Parker
Hannifin’s vice president for
innovation in the hydraulics division,
says his company will build prototype
refuse trucks that incorporate this new
hydraulic hybrid system later this year.
Similar systems for larger delivery
trucks are also in the works.
All of the
different systems promise significant
gains in fuel economy and emissions
reductions. The biggest gains, though,
will likely come from full-series
hybrids — or those that don’t rely
on a mechanical drive train. According
to John Kargul, OTAQ’s
director of technology transfer, the EPA
estimates parallel hybrids will produce
fuel economy improvements in the 20 to
40 percent range. The agency’s
modeling of full-series hybrids predicts
they’ll offer a fuel economy boost of
40 to 80 percent.
In the case of
the UPS truck, the EPA’s modeling
and dyno testing predict 60 to 70
percent more mpg than a similarly sized
vehicle with a conventional drive train,
Kargul says. The EPA just started to
analyze the fuel economy data from the
UPS truck’s real-world performance on
the streets of Detroit. Kargul says
it’s too early to release the results
publicly but adds, “UPS has been very
happy with the early data.”
Parker’s
estimates, meanwhile, place the
potential fuel economy improvements
associated with hydraulic hybrid drive
trains at 30 to 70 percent, depending on
the vehicle’s duty cycle, the
specifics of the drive train design and
the engine management strategies.
The main
difference between EPA’s UPS truck and
Parker’s in-house hybrid design comes
down to the use of a secondary
mechanical direct drive system for the
real wheels under certain driving
conditions. In the EPA’s full-series
hybrid, only the hydraulic system
connects the diesel engine and rear
wheels. So all of the propulsion comes
from the hydraulic system at all times.
Parker, by contrast, augments the
hydraulic drive train with a mechanical
direct drive system that connects the
engine to the rear wheels during highway
driving, meaning steady state speeds
about 50 mph or so.
“We’ve
built hybrid systems both ways — with
and without the driveshaft,” Kovach
says. In fact, Parker, over the years,
has been involved in the full spectrum
of hydraulic hybrids. One of its
European divisions has supplied parallel
hybrid systems that provide hydraulic
launch assist, but get most of their
propulsive power from a conventional
drive train. “We still have about 20
buses using a system like this,” he
says. And in 1991, Parker helped develop
a refuse truck that was a pure series
hydraulic with no mechanical drive
train.
Why put a
secondary mechanical drive on this
latest hybrid system? Kovach
acknowledges the direct drive components
add some complexity — in terms of
mechanical components and controls —
that would be avoided by a pure series
hybrid design. But he argues the direct
drive system offers far more efficiency
during highway driving — more than
enough to offset the complexity penalty.
Glenn Wendel, a
principal engineer at the SwRI,
which helped develop parts of the EPA
system, estimates some hydraulic hybrid
systems can see their efficiency dip as
low as 75 percent during highway
driving, far less than the 90-plus
percent efficiencies they get during
city driving. A traditional geared
transmission and drive train would also
offer efficiencies upwards of 90 percent
on the highway. “That’s why you
won’t see hydraulic hybrid passenger
cars or 18-wheelers,” Wendel says.
The EPA has
opted to offset the efficiency loss
during highway driving differently than
Parker. “We’ve redesigned the
pump-motors to get more efficiency than
we could with an off-the-shelf model,”
Kargul says. For example, EPA
researchers created a pump-motor design
with higher displacement angles than
most off-the-shelf bent-axis pump-motors
— the type used to drive the rear
wheels. “Our pumps displacement angles
in the 45-50 percent range in the same
package size as off-the-shelf pumps with
displacement angles in the 20 to 25
percent range,” says Kargul, noting
bent-axis pump-motors run most
efficiently with higher displacements.
So which of
these two series hybrid strategies will
win out? “It’s really too early to
tell,” says Wendel.
Why
Hydraulics Make Sense
Yet, if ever there was a time for
hydraulic hybrids, it is now. “The
stars have finally aligned,” says
Kovach. One reason is high fuel costs.
Parker’s cost analysis of hydraulic
hybrids systems suggests they offer a
two-to-three year return-on-investment
standpoint when fuel prices exceed
$2/gallon. And because they use a
proven, low-cost technology, some
observers believe hydraulic hybrids are
expected to be relatively inexpensive
compared to electric hybrid for
heavy-duty trucks. Kargul cites an
incremental cost target of $7,000 for
its hybrid power train at production
volumes.
The
capabilities of the hydraulic components
have also gotten better in recent years.
The bent-axis pump-motors used in these
systems have become smaller and more
efficient over the years. Kargul says he
can hold the pump-motor barrel from the
UPS demo in one hand, yet it delivers
300 HP from a fully charged accumulator
and about 150 HP with the accumulator
empty.
And an even
more important change involves the
accumulators used in these high-pressure
hydraulic systems. Kovach recalls when
Parker dipped its toe into hydraulic
hybrid design in 1991, the metal
accumulators for a refuse truck weighed
3,000 lb. “Now we’re using the
space-age composites used on planes and
our accumulators weigh only 300-400
lb,” he says.
The SwRI has
also been focusing on
carbon-fiber-reinforced composite
accumulators and its engineers designed
the accumulators used for the EPA
vehicle. Wendel says, “in general, the
weight of a composite accumulator is
two-and-a-half times less than a
conventional steel bladder-type
accumulator and something more like
10-times less than a piston
accumulator.”
Aside from the
cost and weight of the system itself,
though, hydraulics have something else
going for them — power density.
“Nothing out there beats hydraulics
when it comes to power density,” says
Kovach, who explains high-pressure
accumulators and pump motors have at
least 10 times the power density of
batteries and electric motors. Ultra
capacitors, in theory, can get pretty
close from a power density standpoint.
“But they’re still way too expensive
in these applications,” says Kovach,
who estimates an ultra capacitor of the
size needed for these heavy-duty
vehicles would cost around 50 times as
much as an accumulator that does the
same or better job. (See chart for power
density and cost data).
Hydraulics
suppliers also have an easy route to
bumping up their power density — by
increasing system pressures. The EPA’s
demo for UPS runs at 5,000 psi, mostly
because the engineers who built it
couldn’t at the time find fluid line
connectors rated for higher pressures.
“We’ve since found higher pressure
connectors and the pump-motors are
designed for pressures up to 7,000
psi,” says Kargul. Consequently, the
EPA’s next generation urban delivery
van may run at that higher pressure. And
since power density scales with
operating pressures in these systems,
that same pump-motor Kargul holds in his
hand goes from 330 HP to 510 HP.
Kovach makes
the same point and says Parker could
boost system pressures — and thus,
power density — by two or even three
times using existing hydraulics
technology. “We already have systems
running on America’s
Cup boats at 12,000 psi,” he says.
All that power
density comes in handy in quickly
generating the torque needed to overcome
the high inertial loads associated with
propelling a massive truck. “Batteries
have better energy density, but they
can’t get that energy in and out fast
enough for the stop-and-go applications
where hydraulic hybrids make sense,”
Kovach says.
Hydraulic
Hybrid Applications
Identifying those applications can still
be a bit tricky. In general terms,
though, the advocates of hydraulic
technology are pushing it for
applications where the truck is both
massive and prone to frequent starts and
stops.
In terms of
vehicle weight ratings, the EPA deems
hydraulic hybrids suitable for Class 3
work trucks right up to the heaviest
Class 8 trucks, based on the fuel
economy gains and costs it has measured
in its test vehicles. Parker’s Kovach
believes the hydraulics start to shine
at Class 5 and up. “Class 3 and 4 may
be better served by electric hybrids.
Class 5 could go either electric or
hydraulic,” says Kovach. “But in
Class 6, 7 and 8 with starts and stops,
no technology will come close to
hydraulics for a long time.”
But there’s
more to duty cycle than the frequency of
the stops. Jeff Carpenter, chief
engineer for Eaton Corp.’s hybrid
power systems group, points out the
distance between stops as another duty
cycle factor that can favor one type of
hybrid over another. “What’s the
distance between stops? If it’s short
and the vehicle is heavy, hydraulics may
make sense. It’s, say 1,000 yards or
more, maybe electric storage makes more
sense,” Carpenter says. Put
differently, he argues some trucks will
get the maximum benefit from the power
density advantage provided by hydraulics
while others will get more benefit from
the superior energy storage offered by
batteries. “Both hydraulic and
electric systems have advantages and
disadvantages that depend on how the
customer will use the vehicle,” he
says.
It’s likewise
difficult to determine which type of
hybrid has the efficiency edge.
Carpenter points out, electric and
hydraulic hybrids can both achieve
overall efficiencies over 90 percent —
when used in the right kind of duty
cycles. “They may be a percentage
point or two difference but nothing too
significant,” he says.
But how they
derive that efficiency can help
determine the best fit for each
technology. Kargul maintains hydraulic
hybrids are much more efficient at
recovering braking energy. He says a
hydraulic hybrid with a properly sized
accumulator ends up returning about 70
percent of the braking energy to the
wheels while a typical electric hybrid
returns something around 21 percent. The
reason, he says, has to do with the time
it takes to charge today’s batteries.
Kargul says the energy from a truck’s
braking would cause even a modern
lithium ion battery to exceed its
charging limits, so the batteries only
recover what they can handle. With more
batteries, a hybrid could accept as much
energy as the hydraulic systems. “But
then you have weight, cost and packaging
issues. Designing hybrids involves a
compromise between how much regen energy
you want to recapture versus these other
factors,” he says.
Making the
choice between electric and hydraulic
systems even less clear cut is the fact
both already overlap within a given duty
cycles and weight class. Consider that
Eaton’s own hybrid electric power
trains and the demo hydraulic power
train it built with the EPA go into UPS
vehicles that overlap in terms of weight
and duty cycle. Carpenter points out,
however, the electric version is fully
commercial and now in it’s second
generation. UPS now has 50 of them in
the 16,000 to 24,000 lb range. The
hydraulic version remains a demo, though
a promising one.
The choice
probably won’t become clear for some
time. “The verdict is still out,”
says Kargul. With only 150 Class 6
electric hybrids and one similarly sized
hydraulic hybrid on the road, there
isn’t enough data, in Kargul’s view,
to get a sense of which technology will
be the most cost efficient. “The
bottom line is that the big fleet owners
will continue to look at any hybrid
technologies that can significantly
lower their cost,” Kargul says.
“You’re seeing that right now at
both UPS and at FedEx.”
Over the long
haul, though, even advocates of the
hydraulic hybrids believe electric
systems may prevail. Environmental
Defense’s DeCicco argues electric
propulsion will at some point become so
common it’s adoption will become
inevitable for commercial, rather than
purely technical, reasons. “The
competition between hydraulic and
electric hybrids in some ways start to
look like the competition between
BetaMax and VHS,” he says.
And Kovach, who
develops fluid power technology for a
living, doesn’t think hydraulic
hybrids will be the best choice for
heavy-duty trucks forever.
“Ultracapacitors will get better,”
he says. “At some point, they may
offer a more cost-effective solution
than hydraulics. But that won’t happen
for a long time, especially since we can
continue to increase our pressures and
power densities. Hydraulics can help us
save lots of fuel today without the need
for any new technology.”
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